The smaller side can win — or at least make it close — if the bigger side stays home.
Polls measure opinions. A referendum only counts the people who show up.
Adjust the sliders to see how different turnout rates affect the result. (Just want the headline number? Try the simplified version.)
Current polling puts support around 35%. Change it to test other assumptions.
What share of each group actually shows up to vote?
At these turnout rates, 35% support for separation becomes 48% of the vote.
Result: Alberta stays in Canada
52.2% – 47.8%
Modelled turnout: 62% of eligible voters (1,846,455 ballots cast).
This is not a forecast or a prediction. It doesn't estimate how likely either side is to vote. It just shows what happens when you change the support and turnout assumptions.
Show the math
Nothing complicated is happening behind the scenes. The whole model is three lines:
Eligible voters: 2,966,192 (Elections Alberta, 2025).
Why model different turnout rates?
We don't know for sure how likely supporters of either side are to vote. That's the point.
The idea that a smaller, more committed bloc can out-vote a larger, less-engaged one is a common scenario discussed among people who follow Alberta politics closely — but it's an assumption, not a measured fact.
This simulator lets you test the whole range of possible assumptions. You choose the turnout rates; the math does the rest. Set the two turnout rates equal and you'll see the result that the support numbers alone imply. Then open up a turnout gap and see how much it can matter to the actual result.