The smaller side can win — or at least make it close — if the bigger side stays home.
Polls measure opinions. A referendum only counts the people who show up.
Recent polling suggests 35% of Albertans back the separation option.
This is a what-if tool, not a prediction. Nobody knows who will actually turn out to vote — and that’s the point. This simulator lets you run the numbers under different scenarios.
How does this work?
A poll asks a sample of people what they think. A referendum counts only the ballots that get cast. So if one side is more motivated to vote than the other, its share of the result can land well above its share of public opinion.
This tool holds support for separation at the current estimate from 338Canada, which aggregates the various poll results that are publicly available. The tool lets you change one thing: the turnout gap between the two sides. The rest is arithmetic — each side’s votes are its supporters times its turnout rate, and the result is each side’s share of the total.
Eligible voters: 2,966,192 (Elections Alberta, 2025).
Want to set support and each side's turnout separately? Try the advanced version.